US recession indicator flashes warning sign

Washington, March 27

The bond market is flashing a warning sign that has correctly predicted almost every recession over the past 60 years: a potential inversion of the US Treasury note yield curve, CNN reported.

An inverted yield curve is often seen as a signal that investors are more nervous about the immediate future than the longer term, spurring interest rates on short-term bonds to move higher than those paid on long-term bonds.

While the curve isn't inverted yet, it's getting close. That shouldn't be particularly surprising, given how Russia's invasion of Ukraine -- and its economic ramifications -- continue to weigh heavily on the global economy, CNN reported.

These government bonds have seen a flood of interest in recent weeks, amid geopolitical uncertainty and tightening financial conditions -- the Federal Reserve said last week it is considering as many as six more rate hikes in 2022 alone. That's making investors lose their appetite for stocks and other more volatile assets and turn to dependable investments like Treasuries.

Some market participants are sounding the alarm bell.

"I think there very well could be a recession or even worse," activist investor Carl Icahn said Tuesday in an interview with CNBC. "We have a strong hedge against the long positions... short term I don't even predict."

There is "at least" a one-in-three chance the US economy will have a recession over the next 12 months, Moody's Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi told CNN.

"The harder the Fed steps on the brakes, the higher the probability the car seizes up and the economy goes into recession," Zandi said.