UBS upgrades RIL scrip to Buy from Neutral

Chennai, July 26

Swiss brokerage UBS Securities on Tuesday upgraded Reliance Industries Limited's (RIL) shares to buy from neutral with a 12-month price target of Rs 2,900-Rs 3,150.

On Tuesday, the scrip was changing hands at about Rs 2,438.

According to UBS, the key among Reliance Industries' stock price performance drivers are new investment opportunities to deploy large cash flows profitably.

With India's commitment to net-zero carbon emissions by 2070, UBS estimates it as an $20 trillion opportunity in renewables, batteries and hydrogen.

"Our analysis of RIL's New Energy business suggests it can invest around $36 billion in new energy this decade. However, we think investors have yet to appreciate this, given the lack of details on capacity, capex, earnings drivers etc," UBS said in a report.

"We estimate this opportunity could create $35 billion value by FY30, which discounted back to FY24, adds Rs 234/share to our SOTP (sum of parts) valuation. We also factor in the impact of fuel export taxes (reducing near-term oil-to-chemicals [O2C] earnings), which seems priced in, while removal of export taxes provides upside potential," the report adds.

According to UBS, Reliance Industries is targeting 20GW solar photovoltaic (PV) manufacturing capacity which would be integrated with 90ktpa polysilicon from Jamnagar (supported by the company's environmental clearance proposal).

Similarly, its focus is on the battery energy storage system (BESS) manufacturing facility of 20GWh UBS expects the solar PV/BESS capacity to expand from 15GW/5GWh in FY26 to 27GW/15GWh by FY30.

The New Energy division can offer grid scale power with BESS to its other businesses on fixed returns, consuming over 50 per cent of capacity captive for the next few years.

The UBS also expects the retail and telecom ventures to grow faster.

The UBS also upgraded Reliance Industries' global depository receipts (GDR) to Buy, and raised the price target from $77.33 to $78.75.