Apart from India's northwestern region, all others witnessed deficient rainfall

New Delhi, August 21

In August, the monsoon has fallen significantly short of the long-term average, registering a deficit of 30 per cent, Motilal Oswal Financial Services said in a report.

The southern regions of India, in particular, have experienced notably dry conditions.

After starting the month on a positive note with a 5 per cent surplus due to a wet July, the monsoon took a downturn in August, with an overall deficit of 7 per cent as of August 20, the report said.

While the northwest (6 per cent above normal) has received above normal rainfall, Central India (2 per cent below normal), South Peninsula (13 per centbelow normal) and eastern and northeastern regions have witnessed deficient rainfall patterns (20 per cent below normal).

El Nino has strengthened from a "weak" to a "moderate state and the latest update from the US weather agencies said there was a 66 cper centhance of it developing into a strong event later this year.

Kharif sowing as of August 18 stood at 0.1 per cent higher than last year.

The area under paddy cultivation is now 4.3 per cent higher than last year. However, the area under pulses is still 9.2 per cent lower than last year.

Production of jute, cotton, and oilseeds is also lower. Coarse cereals (1.6 per cent YoY) and sugarcane (1.3 per cent YoY) continue to do well, the report said.

Above normal rainfall in Telangana has led to an improvement in rice sowing.

However, deficient rainfall in major rice producing states (with 56 per cent share in overall rice production) such as West Bengal (14 per cent below normal), Uttar Pradesh (22 per cent), Andhra Pradesh (14 per cent), Chhattisgarh (13 per cent), Bihar (31 per cent), Odisha (8 per cent), Tamil Nadu (5 per cent) and Assam (19 per cent) is a cause of concern.

States with higher irrigation cover, such as Uttar Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, are expected to face less impacted from the deficient monsoon conditions.

Deficient monsoon in states (with 64 per cent share), such as Madhya Pradesh (5 per cent below normal), Maharashtra (5 per cent), Uttar Pradesh (22 per cent), Karnataka (15 per cent), Andhra Pradesh (14 per cent), and Jharkhand (36 per cent), coupled with large excess rainfall in states (24 per cent share) of Gujarat (23 per cent above normal) and Rajasthan (27 per cent) is affecting sowing of pulses, the report said.

Lower irrigation cover across the major states could have a more pronounced impact on the production of pulses.

Inflation in pulses has nearly doubled in the past five months.

Deficient rainfall, and consequently lower rice and pulses sowing, has pushed prices higher. Rice constitutes around 4.4 per cent and pulses has a weight of 6 per cent in the overall CPI basket.