Claims and counterclaims make South China Sea a ticking time-bomb

Washington, Dec 17

The South China Sea has been called the world’s most dangerous battleground no one is talking about. Multiple countries have staked claims and counterclaims on rocks, reefs and other geographic features that could erupt any day.

China has made the most audacious sets of claims that it has pursued aggressively and in brazen defiance of international rules and regulations.

In these past few days, China and the Philippines traded accusations in an incident in the South China Sea. The Philippines Coast Guard accused China of ramming and firing water cannons on its resupply vessels. The Chinese countercharged that the Philippines vessels rammed into a Chinese ship intentionally.

The Philippines vessels were carrying supplies for Filipino Navy sailors on a ship that ran aground on Second Thomas Shoal in the exclusive economic zone of the Philippines in 1999 to protect Manila’s maritime claims in the South China Sea.

China claims most -- 62 per cent, according to the US -- of the South China Sea encompassed by the so-called nine-dash line and tries to prevent the Philippines from sending supplies to this ship.

The US has on occasions flown surveillance flights overhead to help the Philippines make these runs.

The Philippines and the US are treaty allies and they are committed to come to each other’s defence. And an escalated conflagration runs the risk of pulling in the US.

Although not a rim country, the US navy is very visibly present in the region and conducts Freedom of Navigation Operations overflight and sail-throughs under, in complete disregard of China’s claims.

There was a suggestion from the US some years ago to India to jointly patrol the South China Sea, which did not survive the first blush of publicity. It was quietly buried and has never been mentioned again.

The South China Sea is one of the world’s most heavily trafficked waterways, accounting for an estimated $3.4 trillion in ship-borne commerce each year.

The region is also rich in energy resources-- the US estimates that the South China Sea holds about 11 billion barrels of oil reserves and 190 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. And there are the usual marine wealth in fish stocks, coral, and other undersea resources.

Here are the disputes in the South China Sea, as summarised succinctly in an August report by the US Congressional Research Service, a non-partisan source of research on policy matter for the US congress.

-- China, Taiwan, and Vietnam contest the Paracel Islands in the northern part of the South China Sea, which China has occupied since 1974.

-- China and Taiwan also claim Pratas Island, which Taiwan controls.

Vietnam, China and Taiwan, claim all of the approximately 200 Spratly Islands in the southern part of the South China Sea. Brunei, Malaysia and the Philippines have outstanding claims on some of them.

-- In the eastern part of the sea, China, Taiwan, and the Philippines claim Scarborough Shoal, which China has controlled since 2012.

-- China’s “nine-dash line”, an imaginary boundary of China’s claims in the South China Sea, which was rejected by a UN tribunal on maritime claims in 2016, is matched by Taiwan’s “eleven-dash line”.

Could any of these conflicts escalate and plunge the entire region into a war in 2024?